Economic Update 9-30-2024

• Economic data for the week included the final edition of Q2 GDP growth coming in unrevised at a continued strong pace. PCE inflation was slightly improved, while durable goods orders were unchanged. House prices continued to see gains, while new home sales fell back for the month.
• Equities were generally positive globally, led by foreign markets, and particularly Chinese stocks as government stimulus measures were announced. Bonds were flattish in the U.S., but positive abroad due to a weaker U.S. dollar. Commodities were mixed, with gains in metals especially from the Chinese stimulus, while energy prices fell with higher expected supplies.

U.S. stocks gained last week on the heels of benign U.S. economic data and announced stimulus measures in China. Results by sector were mixed, with the strongest gains in materials (with items such as copper and certain chemicals seen as a direct beneficiary of greater Chinese activity), consumer discretionary, and communications, while health care, energy, and financials experienced small declines. Real estate was also down slightly, with interest rates little changed.

Foreign stocks fared especially well last week, with gains in Europe and the U.K. outpacing the U.S., as both services and manufacturing activity fell and raised hopes for rate cuts sooner. (In fact, central banks in Sweden and Switzerland did cut another quarter-percent last week.) Japan lagged with minor declines. Emerging markets were the key story, with gains of over 15% in China leading all other nations by a large degree, with next highest in Taiwan and South Korea, which tend to be related. The Chinese central bank announced a series of policy easing measures last week, including a -0.20% cut in primary 7-day policy rates, as well as a -0.50% cut in bank reserve requirements that loosen up liquidity for lending, and a -0.50% cut in outstanding mortgage rates. It also included more property reforms, lower down payments, and liquidity facilities to help the stock market, with support for refinancings and stock buybacks. Some measures had been expected, other than the timing of when they might happen, as officials move to stimulate towards the 5% GDP growth target. This initial phase of support was not as dramatic as some may have hoped, but was thought to perhaps open the door for further moves (the central bank is ‘studying’ other possible stimulus measures on both the monetary and fiscal side) and perhaps put a ‘floor’ of sorts on what was internally tolerable for the economy and financial markets. It also did not directly address one of the key underlying issues in the Chinese economy, domestic consumer demand, which remains lackluster and is a key reason for gradually declining long-term growth forecasts when coupled with slowing demographic influences.

Bonds experienced an extremely flattish week, in keeping with minimal change in U.S. Treasury yields across the curve. High yield earned a few basis points more than Treasuries for a slight lead, while foreign bonds fared more positively, with help from a weaker U.S. dollar.

Commodities were mixed for the week, with gains in industrial metals and agriculture were offset by declines in energy. Metals gained specifically due to expected pickup in demand from China, with gains in copper and aluminum. Crude oil declined by -4% last week to $68/barrel, following reports that Saudi Arabia is interested in taking back market share by abandoning its $100 oil price target. Natural gas prices continued to spike, with Hurricane Helene bearing down on the Gulf Coast states.

Period ending 9/27/2024	1 Week %	YTD %
DJIA	0.59	13.89
S&P 500	0.64	21.55
NASDAQ	0.96	21.37
Russell 2000	-0.13	10.85
MSCI-EAFE	3.75	14.73
MSCI-EM	6.21	17.23
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate	-0.01	4.69

U.S. Treasury Yields	3 Mo.	2 Yr.	5 Yr.	10 Yr.	30 Yr.
12/31/2023	5.40	4.23	3.84	3.88	4.03
9/20/2024	4.75	3.55	3.48	3.73	4.07
9/27/2024	4.68	3.55	3.50	3.75	4.10

Sources:  LSA Portfolio Analytics, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Kiplinger’s, Marketfield Asset Management, Minyanville, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC, Schroder’s, Standard & Poor’s, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research.  Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends.  Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.                                                                                    

The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness.  All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.  Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.