Last week’s news featured the Federal Reserve keeping short-term policy interest rates steady at their June meeting. Economic data included weaker retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and the index of leading economic indicators. Jobless claims were little changed.
Equities were mixed globally last week, with a variety of global influences. Bonds fared positively as interest rates declined. Commodities were driven higher by energy prices, tied to Middle East concerns.
U.S. stocks were little changed on net for the week, with most eyes still focused on potential escalation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. administration pointing to possible negotiations that seemed to reduce fears somewhat for the time being. (The focused U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities happened on Saturday night, so will likely be a key sentiment factor in the coming week.) Otherwise, a mix of economic data and the Fed staying the course also provided little catalyst for extreme stock price movements. However, later in the week, Fed Gov. Waller noted that rate cuts could be considered sooner than later, with “We could do this as early as July.” By sector, energy, technology, and financials led with gains, while health care (Lilly and J&J primarily), materials, and utilities declined. Small caps outpaced large caps for the week. Real estate fell back by a few basis points.
Foreign stocks were hampered in developed markets by a rise in the value of the U.S. dollar, with Europe, Japan, and the U.K. all suffering similar declines. Emerging markets fared slightly better, with mixed results by country. In addition to the U.S. Fed, several other foreign policymakers also met last week, with the Bank of Japan keeping the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, as did the Bank of England at 4.25%, although the vote was mixed, as usual, with 1/3 of the group voting for a cut. However, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland all cut by -0.25% (the latter back to zero). As with domestic stocks for the week, it appeared Middle East concerns, along with continued uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, and central bank responses to economic growth continued to drive sentiment in a variety of directions.
Bonds fared positively in the U.S., as interest rates pulled back by a few basis points along the yield curve, with the strongest gains coming from high yield and investment-grade corporates. Unhedged foreign bonds were held back by the stronger dollar, with gains elsewhere outside the U.S.
Commodities rose overall, with gains in energy and industrial metals offsetting declines in precious metals and agriculture. Crude oil rose over 3% last week to $74/barrel, after a spike later the prior week, and bringing the month-do-date rise in oil prices to over 20%. Israeli attacks on Iran continued early last week, but didn’t involve key oil facilities directly, which helped prices ease on Monday. (Some natural gas facilities, by contrast, were hit, which are primary geared for Iranian domestic use rather than export.) For the week, natural gas prices rose nearly 10%, due to both weather and Middle East tensions carrying over. As of this morning, crude oil futures prices were up, but not dramatically, with the most current concern being potential Iranian military retaliatory action around the Strait of Hormuz, although that would hurt their own domestic markets, as well as several neighbors, and major Iranian oil buyers (like China), making that a more complicated option.
|
Period ending 6/20/2025 |
1 Week % |
YTD % |
|
DJIA |
0.07 |
0.06 |
|
S&P 500 |
-0.12 |
2.12 |
|
NASDAQ |
0.22 |
1.05 |
|
Russell 2000 |
0.44 |
-4.82 |
|
MSCI-EAFE |
-1.46 |
15.81 |
|
MSCI-EM |
-0.02 |
12.02 |
|
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate |
0.26 |
2.95 |
|
U.S. Treasury Yields |
3 Mo. |
2 Yr. |
5 Yr. |
10 Yr. |
30 Yr. |
|
12/31/2024 |
4.37 |
4.25 |
4.38 |
4.58 |
4.78 |
|
6/13/2025 |
4.45 |
3.96 |
4.02 |
4.41 |
4.90 |
|
6/20/2025 |
4.39 |
3.90 |
3.96 |
4.38 |
4.89 |
Sources: LSA Portfolio Analytics, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Asset Management, Kiplinger’s, Marketfield Asset Management, Minyanville, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, Oppenheimer Funds, Payden & Rygel, PIMCO, Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC, Schroder’s, Standard & Poor’s, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wells Capital Management, Yahoo!, Zacks Investment Research. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends, with the exception of MSCI-EM, which is quoted as price return/excluding dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.
The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.