Economic Update 4-13-2026
Economic data from the week included U.S. GDP for Q4 being revised down further, mixed personal income/spending, consumer price inflation rising sharply due to oil prices, and weaker consumer sentiment.
Equities recovered sharply last week, with the Middle East ceasefire raising hopes for a reversal in energy prices and economic damage. Bonds were little changed along with minimal change in yields. Commodities were mixed, with energy prices falling back, while metals moved higher.
U.S. stocks began the week slightly higher as hopes for a ceasefire between the U.S.-Israel and Iran rose, in the midst of threats of escalation on power infrastructure. This came along with an ease in oil supply concerns, as selected rationing taking place for jet fuel in some countries. Escalating U.S. threats of Iranian destruction were toned down by later Tue. with a 2-week ceasefire put into place, which included free passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The latter was obviously critically important messaging from an energy and materials transportation standpoint, although flipping a switch from off to on for such transports was seen as difficult, coupled with the energy infrastructure damage in the region, which has raised additional supply concerns past the expected timeline of this conflict. The Wed. market response of several percent represented the near-term relief markets had been waiting for, although future actions remained tenuous. Possible ‘violations’ of the ceasefire led to more back-and-forth later in the week (while the weekend brought a U.S. naval blockade announcement, and unclear prospects for the ceasefire).
