Economic Update 3-16-2026
Economic data for the week included consumer price inflation coming in moderate to slightly higher. Housing data improved, with gains in both existing home sales and housing starts. However, prior quarter GDP was revised down sharply, to below 1%.
Equities fell back around the world, as the Middle East conflict and inflation fears weighed on sentiment, especially abroad. Bonds also declined along with rising yields. Commodities continued to be dominated by volatility in oil prices, which reached near $100/barrel, due to the conflict.
U.S. stocks began the week with a fairly benign response on Monday after the prior weekend’s joint U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran. However, Tuesday saw a rapid deterioration in sentiment as attacks on both Iran and Lebanon intensified, along with Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of their main remaining tactical threat tools (via stealthier means, as their navy was decimated). Economic data was mixed, with decent ISM results coupled with a weaker nonfarm payroll report. The key questions in a nutshell: (1) How much damage and/or disruption, at the very least, will be absorbed by oil infrastructure in the Middle East, (2) How long will the conflict last, and (3) What will the new reality look like?
