Economic Update 1-05-2026

In a light year-end week, economic data included slight gains in home prices, lower jobless claims, and Federal Reserve minutes that again pointed to diverging points of view on the committee.

Equities were mixed for the week, with U.S. down and international higher. Bonds lost ground as yields ticked higher. Commodities were mixed as energy rebounded with geopolitical ties, and metals were mixed.

U.S. stocks fell back during the lighter-volume holiday week, although the full year 2025 provided the third straight year of double-digit above-average returns. By sector, energy led the way, with 3% gains along with stronger oil prices. Most other sectors were flattish, while consumer discretionary was down by -3% (mostly due to Tesla), and technology and financials down by over a percent each. As the year drew to a close, hopes for AI continued to boost sentiment for growth stocks, while cyclical and value stocks appeared to gain some additional traction upon hopes that fiscal tailwinds will keep the economy expanding at a decent pace into the new year, which is expected to flow through to earnings, at least in early estimates.

Economic Update 12-29-2025

Economic data included U.S. GDP for Q3 coming in stronger than expected, while industrial production was flattish, and durable goods and consumer sentiment weakened.

In a seasonally-light trading period, global stocks saw decent gains. Bonds ticked up slightly as yields fell. Commodities rose, led by precious and industrial metals.

U.S. stocks gained a bit during a lighter holiday trading week, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching more record highs, and large cap stocks outperforming small caps. Every sector ended positively, led by a mixed bag of materials (with strength in metals for the year, boosting mining names), technology, and financials, although communications was not far behind, all with returns approaching or over 2% for the week. Lagging was the more defensive group of consumer staples, which was up just a few basis points. Real estate also gained about 1.5% for the week.

Economic Update 12-22-2025

Economic data last week included improved consumer inflation readings (albeit tainted due to a missing month), a stronger than expected employment situation report (also colored by the shutdown’s lack of data), and gains in retail sales, existing home sales, and consumer sentiment. These were offset by a pullback in manufacturing and services PMI data.

Equities were mixed last week by segment in both the U.S. and internationally. Bonds saw gains, as interest rates fell back along with slower inflation results. Commodities were also mixed, with strength in metals specifically and weakness in energy.

U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up slightly, while the Dow Jones large cap index and Russell 2000 small cap index down, all based on composition. By sector, conditions were mixed, with gains in consumer discretionary (Tesla and Starbucks) and technology (Nvidia and Microsoft) leading the way, while energy stocks fell about -3% in keeping with weaker pricing for crude oil and natural gas, along with high supplies. Real estate fell about a percent.

Economic Update 12-15-2025

Economic news for the week included another quarter-percent policy interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a seasonal rise in jobless claims, and stronger-than-expected job openings data.

Equities were mixed globally, with U.S. value and small caps among the strongest. U.S. bonds pulled back for the most part, along with higher interest rates across the yield curve. Commodities were mixed, with stronger metals and weaker energy.

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with a pullback in the large cap growth segment, offset by gains in more cyclical value and small caps, in line with a less hawkish Fed than was initially expected. By sector, returns were strongest in materials and financials, each up over 2%, while communications and technology lagged, declining by -2% to -3% (mostly via negative contributions from Intel and Nvidia). In the latter, investors showed some nervousness after the announcement that the U.S. administration is easing export curbs on fairly high-end H200 semiconductors to China. Higher technology company valuations also appeared to be a bit of a concern, as AI favorite Oracle reported weaker revenue but also higher expected capex spending than markets anticipated.

Economic Update 12-8-2025

The economic data release schedule has begun to normalize, with last week showing gains in personal income and spending, ISM services, industrial production, and consumer sentiment. These offset the weaker ISM manufacturing and ADP employment reports.

Equities fared positively around the world, with Europe and Japan outperforming the U.S. Most bonds lagged as interest rates ticked higher, although there were pockets of gains. Commodities gained in both energy and base metals.

U.S. stocks gained last week, with slower pre-holiday trading, but continued hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this coming Wednesday. By sector, gains were led by technology (Nvidia, but even more so by firms like Salesforce and Adobe) and energy, up by over 1% for the week. Sentiment for artificial intelligence appeared to turn bullish again, in a continued back-and-forth lately between optimism about its productivity potential versus higher valuations for related firms and substantial cash flows spent on infrastructure. Laggards included more defensive sectors utilities, health care, and consumer staples, all of which lost several percent. Real estate also fell back by over -1% along with higher interest rates.

Economic Update 12-1-2025

On a short holiday week, economic data included gains in retail sales and durable goods orders, as well as higher producer price readings, decelerating home prices, and continued weak consumer confidence. However, the recent government reopening meant some data released was fairly stale at this point.

Equities rebounded into gains last week, led by the U.S. over international. Bonds also fared well as interest rates fell back amidst Fed member dovishness. Commodities also saw gains, mostly in metals.

U.S. stocks recovered back into positive territory last week, following negative performance the week prior, and wrapping up a more volatile November where the S&P 500 only gained 0.2%, but continued a string of seven straight positive months. Stocks gained sharply early in the week as odds of a December Fed rate cut were further absorbed by markets. These odds have been largely driven by dovish or hawkish comments from various FOMC members, with the voting odds now tilted again toward easing. The maxim of “Don’t Fight the Fed” can be powerful when markets are in the midst of rate cuts.

Economic Update 11-24-2025

Economic data began to slowly flow again, following the record-long government shutdown, although scheduling remains delayed for a variety of releases. Last week’s highlights included the employment situation report for September coming in a bit stronger than expected, a rise in existing home sales, and improvement in several PMI surveys. However, consumer sentiment remained weak.

Equities fell back globally due to investor concerns about technology stock valuations, potential economic slowing, and an uncertain Fed rate path. Bonds fared well as interest rates fell back. Commodities fell across the board, especially in energy.

U.S. stocks fell back last week, with markets attempting to digest a variety of news. Earlier in the week, Home Depot provided some cautious comments about the health of the consumer, who appeared to be scaling back some home remodeling purchases in light of economic uncertainty, and reduced guidance. The Nvidia earnings report took over the focus by midweek, with Wed. results surpassing expectations, and management noting that AI chip sales were “off the charts,” although sentiment reversed downward along with some AI skepticism. Some of the early-week choppiness was reversed with a strong early gain on Thurs., with a better-than-expected (albeit old) September nonfarm payroll report, which eventually soured hopes downward when a no-cut December looked like more of a possible reality. Friday’s recovery was helped by New York Fed President Williams support of lower interest rates, which sharply raised market odds of a December cut after all back over 50%.

Economic Update 11-17-2025

Economic data remained sparce last week, but as the federal government shutdown ended, coming weeks should see a more normal report flow.

Equities were mixed, with foreign stocks seeing gains, offset by declines in U.S. large cap growth and small cap. Bonds fell back as yields rose across the U.S. Treasury curve. Commodities gained, again led by precious metals, while oil was little-changed.

U.S. stocks were mixed on the week, with large cap indexes up slightly, while the Nasdaq and small cap groups fell back. Early Monday, stocks saw gains as hopes rose over the weekend for a short-term resolution to the government shutdown, which would offer a brief holiday respite. The bill was signed by late Wed., which funds the government through Jan. 30, and included controversial funding for SNAP food assistance programs. However, the longer-term issue of health care subsidies, which is the sticking point between the two parties, has yet to be addressed. Health insurance premiums are expected to soar again in 2026, continuing a pace that ramped up during the pandemic. By Thursday, the lack of available data and depth and length of the government shutdown weighed on investors, fearing additional weakness in the quarter. This was in addition to some diminished excitement for the buoyant 2025 theme of artificial intelligence, as valuations have continued to run on the higher side of consensus expectations for near-term revenues, albeit with still imperfect visibility on AI benefits flowing through to the economy, and impact on labor markets. Overall, we’ve seen a negative reversal for stocks referred to as ‘momentum,’ ‘high beta,’ and ‘low quality,’ which had rallied so sharply since April’s ‘Liberation Day.’ By contrast, stocks with higher-quality fundamentals have tended to lag in relative terms, which is the opposite of their stronger results over longer-term time periods.

Economic Update 11-10-2025

Economic data was again limited due to the federal government shutdown, but included improvements in ISM services and ADP employment, while ISM manufacturing and consumer sentiment fell back to varying degrees.

Equities were largely down around the world, led by a pullback in the technology group. Bonds were flat with little change in Treasury yields. Commodities were also relatively flattish for the week, and oil fell slightly.

U.S. stocks experienced on off-week, as technology experienced the bulk of the declines, down around -4% (led by down Nvidia, Microsoft, and Salesforce), followed by communications. On the positive side, gains were seen in energy, health care, and financials.

Economic Update 11-03-2025

Economic data from the U.S. government remained on hold, while private sources showed housing prices flattening, and continued challenged consumer sentiment. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-percent, as markets already expected.

Equities were mixed globally, with gains and losses dispersed by region. Bonds were largely down in the U.S. upon higher interest rates, and mixed abroad, with a stronger dollar. Commodities were also mixed, with oil prices little-changed.

U.S. stocks saw gains in the large cap area, while small caps fell back, which largely appeared to be interest rate related. were boosted by what seemed to be progress on a U.S.-China trade agreement and loosening of tensions at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. By Thursday, a 1-year trade truce was announced. While temporary, this included a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, as well as China’s suspension of rare earth mineral export controls, and their resumed purchasing of U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans. Mid-week, the FOMC decision was seen as a positive, which reversed a bit as Chair Powell noted that a December cut was “far from certain,” pulling back on dovishness a bit. However, by the end of the week, despite strong revenues (from firms like Meta), hints of strong spending on AI for the next quarter and into 2026 had investors on edge a bit with returns on investment yet to be determined, although sentiment for the AI concept remains one of the primary drivers of sentiment. The U.S. government remains closed, now having reached a full month, and threatening the record 35 days from the 2018-19 shutdown, and is now assumed to perhaps trim a full percent off of Q4 GDP growth, although that could be made up in Q1-2026.

Economic Update 10-27-2025

Economic data remained sparce as the federal government shutdown continued, with the exception of CPI inflation, which remained high, but somewhat cooler than expected. Private sources included gains in manufacturing and services PMI, as well as existing home sales, while weakness continued in consumer confidence.

Equities rose globally, led by the U.S. and emerging markets. Bonds fared positively in the U.S. credit segment, but lagged internationally with a stronger dollar. Commodities were generally higher with additional Russian sanctions reducing potential crude oil supplies.

U.S. stocks started the week strongly, with hopes of both an end to the U.S. government shutdown (which didn’t happen), as well as stronger chances of progress between the U.S. and China, via expected upcoming meetings. By Friday, the delayed September U.S. CPI report came in a bit less inflationary than expected, which raised chances of the Federal Reserve continuing their easing plan this coming week, and perhaps again in December.

Economic data remained sparce with the U.S. government shutdown continuing beyond its second week.

Stocks rebounded upward last week as U.S. earnings season began. Bonds also saw gains as interest rates fell, helped internationally by a weaker dollar. Commodities rose a bit due to gains in precious metals offsetting declines in energy.

U.S. stocks fared positively for the week, reversing a sharply negative prior week. Markets opened the week positively after the Israel-Gaza ceasefire news, and U.S. administration comments over the weekend that U.S.-China trade tensions “will all be fine,” which neutralized some of the sharp negativity and near -3% drop in the S&P the prior Friday. By Friday, the administration noted that high tariffs on China were “not sustainable.” The back and forth around U.S.-China trade relations continued, while a dovish Federal Reserve, and continued positive sentiment around AI moved prices higher.

By sector, gains were led by communications, technology, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples, each up around 2% or more for the week. Financials were weakest, showing minimal gains, as some regional banks noted some concerns over weakening credit quality (noting fraud in some cases), including two bankruptcies in the sub-prime auto loan segment, which offset better-than-expected earnings results from bigger banks earlier. Time will tell if this problem intensifies and becomes a market concern, although loan delinquencies (especially in the lower-income segment) have risen. Real estate also fared well, up over 3%, as yields declined a bit and double-digit gains in the industrial segment.

Economic Update 10-06-2025

Economic data included an improvement in the ISM manufacturing report, although it stayed in contraction, while ISM services fell to neutral. Several reports weren’t published because of the Federal government shutdown, including the closely-watched employment situation report.

Equities saw gains last week globally, led by international markets over U.S. Bonds fared positively as well, as assumed plans for Federal Reserve easing and the government shutdown pulled down yields. Commodities were mixed, with strength in metals and weakness in energy.

U.S. stocks fared positively, despite the rising odds of a government shutdown at quarter-end (and reality on Oct. 1), being offset by weaker labor data, which perpetuated the assumption of another Federal Reserve cut late in October. Artificial intelligence sentiment and momentum also remained high. By sector, gains were strongest in health care, followed by utilities and technology. In health care, up 7%, this was led mostly by Pfizer, after an agreement between the firm and the U.S. administration to lower prescription drug prices in the Medicaid program in exchange for tariff relief. Declines were most pronounced in energy and communications, with the latter being due to falling oil prices. Real estate ticked up slightly for the week, with declines in interest rates. Earnings results for Q3 will be rolling out next week, which could take some of the attention away from other macro events.

Economic Update 10-06-2025

Economic data included an improvement in the ISM manufacturing report, although it stayed in contraction, while ISM services fell to neutral. Several reports weren’t published because of the Federal government shutdown, including the closely-watched employment situation report.

Equities saw gains last week globally, led by international markets over U.S. Bonds fared positively as well, as assumed plans for Federal Reserve easing and the government shutdown pulled down yields. Commodities were mixed, with strength in metals and weakness in energy.

U.S. stocks fared positively, despite the rising odds of a government shutdown at quarter-end (and reality on Oct. 1), being offset by weaker labor data, which perpetuated the assumption of another Federal Reserve cut late in October. Artificial intelligence sentiment and momentum also remained high. By sector, gains were strongest in health care, followed by utilities and technology. In health care, up 7%, this was led mostly by Pfizer, after an agreement between the firm and the U.S. administration to lower prescription drug prices in the Medicaid program in exchange for tariff relief. Declines were most pronounced in energy and communications, with the latter being due to falling oil prices. Real estate ticked up slightly for the week, with declines in interest rates. Earnings results for Q3 will be rolling out next week, which could take some of the attention away from other macro events.

Economic Update 9-29-2025

Economic data included a revision higher for Q2 U.S. economic growth, as well as strength in durable goods orders and new home sales. Jobless claims have stabilized after a few unusual weeks, including some fraudulent activity. Consumer sentiment remained challenged, with a good degree of pessimism about the economy and labor markets.

Equities were mixed, with declines in the U.S. and emerging markets, while Europe saw gains. Bonds were generally down as interest rates rose along with strong economic results and inflation. Commodities also gained, largely coinciding with crude oil.

U.S. stocks declined on net last week, led downward by growth stocks and small cap, in a reversal of the prior few weeks. By sector, energy led the way, up 5% along with a spike in oil prices, as well as utilities, while materials lagged with a decline of a few percent, in addition to consumer discretionary and consumer staples. The week featured a variety of unusual headlines, which included a large investment from Nvidia in OpenAI, and the U.S. administration’s involvement in a spin-off of TikTok’s U.S. operations from its Chinese operator for $14 bil. Early in the week, tech firms especially tried to interpret implications of the administrations of the new H-1B visa fee of $100,000, which has a strong impact on technology company employees, primarily from India. However, confusion continues around who is responsible for paying the fee, whether or not it’s a one-time charge, and how it would affect current U.S. workers on visa. A 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals was announced (except for the EU and Japan), for any firm not planning a manufacturing facility in the U.S., as well as new levies on heavy trucks, (upholstered) furniture, and kitchen cabinets.

Economic Update 9-22-2025

Economic data include the Federal Reserve reducing policy short-term interest rates by a quarter-percent, as expected. Gains were seen in retail sales and industrial production, regional manufacturing surveys saw mixed results, while housing starts and homebuilder sentiment continued to weaken.

Equities rose in the U.S. and internationally for the most part, buoyed by easier central bank policy. Bonds were mixed to lower, along with higher longer-term rates. Commodities declined in several sectors.

U.S. stocks gained last week, with solidified hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this coming week, as well as continued optimism about the potential for artificial intelligence, which has been the broad theme driving much of the market’s upward movement. Early in the week, hopes for a ‘jumbo’ (0.50%) Fed rate cut in Sept. elevated the mood, with that hope driven by weaker labor markets. (This was particularly driven home by revisions for the year ended March 2025 showing that 911k fewer jobs were created than first assumed.) However, the Fed usually has a high bar for extreme easing moves, especially if inflation remains at current elevated levels.

Economic Update 9-15-2025

Economic data released last week included producer price inflation coming a bit flatter than expected, while consumer price inflation inched higher in a variety of areas.

Equities gained around the world, notably by the most in emerging markets. Bonds also saw gains as interest rates fell for longer-term maturities. Commodities saw positive returns as well, led by segments other than energy.

U.S. stocks gained last week, with solidified hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this coming week, as well as continued optimism about the potential for artificial intelligence, which has been the broad theme driving much of the market’s upward movement. Early in the week, hopes for a ‘jumbo’ (0.50%) Fed rate cut in Sept. elevated the mood, with that hope driven by weaker labor markets. (This was particularly driven home by revisions for the year ended March 2025 showing that 911k fewer jobs were created than first assumed.) However, the Fed usually has a high bar for extreme easing moves, especially if inflation remains at current elevated levels.

Economic Update 9-02-2025

Economic data for the week included U.S. GDP growth for the 2nd quarter being upgraded a bit, and continued growth in personal income and spending. On the weaker side were durable goods orders, home prices, and consumer sentiment.

Equities were flat in the U.S. but fell several percent overseas. Bonds were little-changed for the week. Commodities rose a bit across the board, led by gold.

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower in a pre-Labor Day light trading week that many consider to be the end of the summer season. (As volumes have tended to pick up right after the holiday, often with less optimistic sentiment in the month of September, at least traditionally.) The President’s announcement that he would be firing Fed Governor Cook led to concerns over the Fed’s reputation, as noted earlier, but not to a major degree. The big earnings news of the week was Nvidia, which reported over-50% revenue growth year-over-year, which is exceptional by most any metric, yet underwhelmed investors a bit. In other technology news, it was announced that the U.S. government will be taking a 10% equity stake in Intel, in efforts to boost domestic chip manufacturing (which is currently dominated by Taiwan, in a geopolitically precarious position). By Friday, a stronger PCE inflation report soured the mood a bit, as it pointed to price pressures making their way through the system. By sector, energy stocks saw gains of several percent, followed by financials and communications, while defensives utilities and consumer staples lost several percent. Real estate stocks were little changed.

Economic Update 5-19-2025

Economic news last week included inflation metrics showing improvement on both a consumer and producer level. Also, data included slightly higher retail sales and housing starts, unchanged industrial production, but weaker consumer sentiment that continues a negative trend.

Equities gained globally, as U.S.-China trade negotiations lowered chances of economic slowing. Bonds were mixed, with yields higher but credit spreads tighter. Commodities were also mixed, with crude oil and industrial metals higher.

U.S. stocks earned strong returns last week, beginning with the S&P 500 rising over 3% on Monday with news from the prior weekend of substantial progress with China on a de-escalation of trade tensions. This included a suspension of earlier tariff rates for 90 days for a continuation of talks, with U.S. tariff rates on China falling from 145% down to 30% (and China-on-U.S. tariffs reduced from 125% to 10%). Cooler inflation also helped sentiment a bit, although many see those prior-month figures as being on borrowed time if/when tariff impacts creep through. Every sector ended positively last week, led by substantial gains of nearly 8% in both technology (led by Nvidia) and consumer discretionary (led by Tesla), while normally-defensive health care gained only a few tenths of a percent (completely due to weakness in UnitedHealth). Real estate also gained about a percent, despite higher yields.

Economic Update 10-28-2024

• Economic data for the week included a decline in overall durable goods, mixed results in housing sales, as well as higher continuing jobless claims, due to a variety of weather and labor issues.  
• Equities declined globally, with higher interest rates and less certainty about central bank rate easing looking forward. Bonds fell back along with rising yields at the longer end of the curve. Commodities gained, largely due to energy, despite a stronger dollar.

U.S. stocks lost ground for the first time in six weeks, as higher interest rates associated with an assumed more drawn-out Fed rate cut cycle and perhaps higher future deficits post-election weighed on sentiment. By sector, consumer discretionary experienced a percent gain (led by a 20%+ return for Tesla, upon better than expected earnings and vehicle sales projections) and a small gain for technology, while negativity was most pronounced in materials, industrials, and health care. Large cap fared better than small cap. Real estate fell about -2% upon the rise in yields.

At the September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to reduce the Fed funds rate by -0.50% to a new range of 4.75-5.00%. There was one voter dissent, where a member opted for only a quarter-percent cut.

The formal statement was updated to reflect the new easing bias, noting that inflation has simply “made further progress...but remains somewhat elevated.” Also noted was that the committee’s labor and inflation goals “are roughly in balance.” Later in the statement, labor was again mentioned in a reminder of the Fed’s dual mandate in “supporting maximum employment” in addition to its inflation objective. The new quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) put the Fed funds rate expectation at 4.4% for year-end 2024 (down from 5.1% in June), 3.4% for 2025, 2.9% for 2026 and 2027, while the anticipated long-term rate ticked up a tenth to 2.9%.

There hasn’t been this much mystery shrouding a policy change in some time, and surprise announcements have not been common in recent years. Before the meeting, CME Fed funds futures markets evolved toward the chances of a -0.50% cut at as high as 60%, and a -0.25% move at around 40%, after wavering between the two for much of the past month (wisdom of futures markets is correct again). Chances remain high for cuts in November and December, with odds pointing to a year-end rate of around 4.25%. The furthest-out estimate in Dec. 2025 shows the highest probabilities for Fed funds at around 3.00%.

Economic Update 6-03-2024

• For the short holiday week, economic data included U.S. GDP growth being downgraded a few tenths, continued improvement in lower PCE inflation, higher home prices, and improved consumer sentiment.
• Equities were mixed globally, with developed markets down a bit on net, while emerging markets fell further. Bonds were little changed domestically, while foreign markets saw mixed results. Commodities fell back across a variety of sectors.

U.S. stocks fell on the shortened week, but ended May with solid gains to offset weakness from the prior month. By sector, energy and utilities led the way with gains upward of 2%, while technology fell back by over -2% (as a positive week for some stocks was offset by weakness in Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft). Real estate also gained, with Friday’s ‘less bad’ inflation news providing a boost.